Lone Actor terrorist attacks is a difficult problem to fully understand and these less sophisticated attacks increase in volume in the Western world by an upward trend in lethality. It is said these types of attacks are difficult to predict and therefore difficult to prevent.
The book The Age of Lone Wolf Terrorism, written by Mark S. Hamm and Ramon Spaaij” examines the phenomenon of ‘lone wolf terrorism’ to delineate patterns that could help policy and law makers to identify and prevent terrorist incidents committed by single individuals.
Hamm and Spaaij provide an in-depth insight into the demographic characteristics of terrorists, the roots of radicalisation, commonalities between lone actor terrorists and criminals with different ideological beliefs, as well as cases of sting operations and lone shooters.
Myself and many security professionals deliberately use the term “lone actors” rather than lone wolves, as the latter implies a high level of cunning and lethality that is often not present among these individuals.
Although often not as deadly as group-based terrorist attacks, lone actor violence, such as vehicle-borne or firearms attacks on soft targets, represents a serious threat against Western societies. Most lone actor attacks are relatively unsophisticated in their design and execution. Soft targets are preferred, meaning that members of the public and law enforcement, rather than politicians, who are more likely to have a protective detail or reside in hard-to-reach locations, are the target of choice.
Terrorist attacks by lone individuals are statistically rare and much less common than group terrorist attacks and yet, as we have seen in the past few years, they can devastate communities and inflame public fear.
It is believed that lone actors are hard to detect, mostly because of their tendency to isolate themselves. The pathways that can lead individuals to adopt the motivation for committing acts of terrorism can take a variety of forms
So why do these individuals go from “peaceful” to violent terrorists?
What if we are able to gain a better understanding on why these lone actors have transformed or have transformed themselves into terrorists? We may be fortunate enough to identify early warning signs that an individual is planning to conduct an attack even before the preliminary target selection.
Lone actors are thought to present a novel and particularly serious threat precisely because the absence of co-conspirators, meaning that they do not engage in the communication and interaction with others that would render them vulnerable to detection and infiltration.
Research has found that throughout the process leading from ideological radicalisation to the planning and preparation of terrorist attacks, many lone actors are not the undetectable threat they are often portrayed as, it is found that many lone actors maintain plot-relevant social ties that render them vulnerable to detection, that they are poor at maintaining operational security, and that they start “leaking” their intentions months or even years ahead of their attack.
We know that terrorists generally plan attacks in observable stages, although specific details, sequencing, and timing can vary greatly and change over time. Preattack surveillance and rehearsals are the stages of the planning cycle that are often observable and can offer opportunities to identify plots and prevent attacks.
This creates a advantage to those working to detect and prevent this form of violence from taking place, therefore awareness and vigilance are crucial to identify behaviours that can lead to a violent attack.
When several behaviours taken in context, can indicate radicalised individuals are mobilising and preparing to engage in violence.
As a security industry, it is greatly important that the security industries frontline personnel and managers have a better understanding of the terrorist planning cycle and trained to identify suspicious activity potentially related to terrorism.
Let’s re-think prevention and the protection of both people and assets around the world against potentially deadly and costly attacks. Lone actors never evolve out of nowhere.